The new exchange rate policy in the Asian emerging economies – goodbye trouble,hello comfort?

In this paper, we discuss new aspects of exchange rate policy that can be observed in the Asian emerging economies. In the first place, we show the alternative regimes they may choose and their respective pros and cons. Secondly, we concentrate on the recent strategy of systematic undervaluation of one's currency – figuring prominently among ‘big’ Asian players such as China and India – and the most likely implications of such a strategy for domestic allocation, distribution and stabilization goals. With the background of Germany's experiences in 1969, almost on the eve of the Bretton Woods' system collapse, we model a speculative attack on an undervalued currency in the vein of the Flood–Garber seminal paper from 1984. Now, however, the country in concern (just like India and China) possesses strong rather than weak fundamentals. The continuous accumulation of international reserves, in addition, leads to the question of an ‘optimal management’ of foreign exchange reserves in Asian emerging economies with regard to size and composition. We finally propose a sequence of reforms/policies that should be implemented in those Asian emerging economies on their still long journey to a regime featured by autonomous monetary policy, flexible exchange rate and capital mobility. A brief summary and an outlook for future research close the paper.     

Whose firm is it anyway? Analyzing ownership effects on IPO performance

This study revisits current practice that ownership holding at IPO has a homogeneous impact on IPO performance. Using signalling theory, we develop and test a conceptual model explaining the relationships between the aggregated ownership structure and IPO price premium. We argue that aggregated ownership has a direct effect on issue price premium, and offer specific hypotheses on the effect of the shares sold during the offering by each type of owner on IPO performance. We use archival data from a sample of US firms that issued IPOs between 1996 and 2000 and find a significant direct effect of ownership configuration, namely, heterogeneity in effect of each ownership type on IPO performance as well as interaction effects between different ownership types. Copyright © 2013 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal Trading and Lifestyle Motivation

ABSTRACT

This article explores relationships between tourism sea-sonality and the lifestyle motivations of small tourism businesses, fundamentally a supply-side perspective of seasonality. Seasonal trading decisions are subject to a number of influences, not all of which are in the operator's control. Drawing from exploratory research undertaken in Scotland, the article argues that for some operators, especially located in rural and peripheral destination areas, lifestyle enterprise can confer a range of benefits, some of which are afforded by operating the business on a seasonal basis. Moreover, seasonal trading was seen to assume a number of distinct roles, reflecting various characteristics of lifestyle operators. Accordingly, public policies that seek to promote seasonal extension based on the premise of local economic development or destination objectives are not necessarily destined to work. This is particularly pertinent if such policies do not recognise the wider supply-side dynamics of seasonal trading and fail to engage with the lifestyle aspirations of the operators themselves.     

走出金融危机阴影的印度科技——简述2009年印度科技发展的新特点

2009年，印度科技在金融危机与气候变化双重压力与挑战下稳步发展，研发投入、能力建设、科技政策、科技产业等方面均有新进展、新成就。本文简要综述了印度2009年科技发展的总体情况。     

The Taylor Rule and “Opportunistic” Monetary Policy

We investigate the possibility that the Taylor rule should be formulated as a threshold process such that the Federal Reserve acts more aggressively in some circumstances than in others. It seems reasonable that the Federal Reserve would act more aggressively when inflation is high than when it is low. Similarly, it might be expected that the Federal Reserve responds more to a negative than a positive output gap. Although these specifications receive some empirical support, we find that a modified threshold model that is consistent with “opportunistic” monetary policy makes significant progress toward explaining Federal Reserve behavior.     

A New Data Set on Monetary Policy: The Economic Forecasts of Individual Members of the FOMC

This paper describes a new data set of the forecasts of output growth, inflation, and unemployment prepared by individual members of the Federal Open Market Committee. The paper discusses the scope of the data set, possibilities for extending it, and some potential uses. It offers a preliminary examination of some of the cross‐sectional features of the data.     

Exchange Rate Crises and Fiscal Solvency

This paper combines insights from generation one currency crisis models and the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) to create a dynamic FTPL model of currency crises. The initial fixed‐exchange‐rate policy entails risks due to an upper bound on government debt and stochastic surplus shocks. Agents refuse to lend into a position for which the value of debt exceeds the present value of expected future surpluses. Policy switching, usually combined with currency depreciation, restores fiscal solvency and lending. This model can explain a wide variety of crises, including those involving sovereign default. We illustrate by explaining the crisis in Argentina (2001).     

论日本的土地征收制度

日本的土地征收制度颇具特色，除详尽规定了公共利益外，还设立了事业认定程序、裁决程序，规定了补偿制度，对征收中的争议提供了不同的救济途径。     

The forest transition: Towards a more comprehensive theoretical framework

Building on the contributions of Mather and others, this paper offers an approach for developing a more comprehensive theory of the forest transition. We argue that long-run changes in forest cover in a country or region cannot be separated from the overall pattern of land use changes. Moreover, this pattern is determined by relative land values; forest cover changes over time as the value of one land use relative to the value of its competing use changes over time. However, the actual values that are used to allocate land may be far from optimal; that is, the presence of market, policy and institutional failures can distort economic and political incentives that can lead to bias in favour of one type of land use over the other, and may ultimately explain why a forest transition may be delayed unnecessarily in some countries and regions.     

我国液态生物质燃料适度发展规模研究——宏观经济视角的分析

本文通过构建简单的总供给一总需求模型,分析石油数量调控政策、潜在产出水平与均衡价格上涨之间的数理逻辑关系,进而间接得到液态生物质燃料适度规模问题的一般分析框架,为进一步的定量分析打下坚实基础。研究结果表明:为达到潜在产出水平和一定的价格上涨水平,不同的现实条件要求政府实行不同的石油数量调控政策。